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Glass Market Prospects and Demand Analysis
The price of glass futures in July was mainly strong, and the futures price rose again 3 times higher than the historical time, at 3163 yuan / ton, an increase of nearly 13%. In the mid-to-late ten days, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced that it implemented trading restrictions on some laminated glass option contracts to curb speculative requirements. Limited by the current policy of the supervisory agency, glass futures have experienced short-term adjustments. However, under the correct guidance of its strong stock fundamentals, the futures market quickly stopped falling and stabilized，glasscookware.
Supply Analysis
In terms of production volume, according to the data released by the China Bureau of Statistics, in June 2021, the production volume of photovoltaic glass by Chinese glass bottle manufacturers was 87.07 million heavy boxes, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%; from January to June, the production volume of photovoltaic glass was 508.41 million heavy boxes, A year-on-year increase of 10.8%. Thanks to the higher manufacturing profitability, in 2021, China's production line repair and high production will lead to an increase in production volume. According to testing, as of July 29, taking coal-based gas as an example, the price of flat glass is 2,800 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 1,445 yuan/ton; taking gas as an example, the price of flat glass is 3,100 yuan/ton, and the profit is 1,387 yuan/ton. ; Taking petroleum coke as an example, the price of flat glass is 3106 yuan/ton, and the profit is 1788 yuan/ton.
2008-2011 is the peak period of production capacity. According to the cold repair cycle time of 8-10 years, it will still be in the peak period of cold repair in 2021. According to the data, as of July 28, after the zombie production line was removed, there were a total of 294 laminated glass production lines across the country, of which 262 were in production and 32 were shut down due to cold repairs. The production and sales ratio of float manufacturing enterprises was 89.12%, and the production volume was 89.88%. In July, the daily melting capacity of the glass industry remained at a stable level of 174,100 tons, which was higher than that of the same period. However, because most of the ignition of the production line is carried out before the peak period, the production capacity of the ignition after the event is very small. Before September, about 1000-2000 tons of production capacity will be ignited, accounting for about 1% of the total production capacity. It is understood that there are nearly 50 production lines with a kiln age exceeding 8 years. Although the further expansion of profitability is still enough to stimulate laminated glass manufacturers to accelerate production, delay cold repair production lines or reduce cold repair time, it is very likely to stop work anytime and anywhere in the middle and late stages, and the working pressure on the supply side of laminated glass is not obvious. .
Inventory Analysis
In terms of inventory, as of July 29, the total inventory output of laminated glass test companies across the country was 17.2512 million heavy boxes, a month-on-month decrease of 5.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 61.34% (under the same standard, the inventory of the test companies decreased by 5.90% month-on-month. , a year-on-year decrease of 66.34%), and the inventory days were 8.32 days. In June, affected by the rainy season and macroeconomic policies, the replenishment mentality in the middle and lower reaches weakened. However, after the trading companies and manufacturers digested and absorbed their own inventory in June, the inventory was at a low level, and the stocking was only to better promote the improvement of the delivery of the original film factory. So far in July, the inventory of flat glass companies has decreased. The traditional peak sales market is expected to rise and fall, the middle and upper reaches have certain requirements for replenishment of inventory, the middle and lower reaches have sufficient order information, and the sales market just needs a super strong support point, and the inventory of glass bottle factories is expected to be further reduced.
Demand Side Analysis
At the level of requirements, statistics show that the production volume of insulating glass windows will maintain a high growth rate in 2021, and the total production volume from January to May will increase by 17.7% year-on-year, indicating that the requirements for laminated glass will increase. Because more than 70% of the laminated glass is used behind the real estate industry, the requirements for laminated glass are reflected in the completion of the construction project. Judging from the development trend of data and information on the total construction area of houses in recent years, the increase in the total construction area from 2018 to October 2019 showed a continuous upward trend. In accordance with all normal progress, this new construction will be completed between 2020 and 2022. However, due to the impact of the pneumonia epidemic in 2020, the completion of the real estate industry did not increase year-on-year until the fourth quarter. From the data information in the first half of the year, the completion of the real estate industry has been accelerated. According to data from the China Bureau of Statistics, the total area of real estate completed in June increased by 66.5% year-on-year and 24.7% higher than in 2019. From January to June 2021, the living area across the country was 365 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 25.67%, and the growth rate increased by 9.29%.
It is worth mentioning that in 2017, the General Office of the State Council issued a notice deciding to open a national-level new area—Xiongan New Area planning to further promote the development trend of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration and cooperation. another key component of . The planning and planning area of Xiongan New Area is 100 square kilometers, the middle and late economic development zone is about 200 square kilometers, and the long-term control area is 2,000 square kilometers. At this stage, the production capacity of laminated glass in the Northeast region accounts for about 32% of all parts of the country. However, because the advantages of cost and cost mainly flow into East China and South China, there is a large vacancy in the construction technology glass requirements of Xiong'an New District planning projects, and there are continuous requirements for laminated glass in the medium and long term.
Laminated glass industry prospects and future prospects
Although the higher profit has increased the production volume, the laminated glass production line cannot be improved, only the production capacity can be replaced, so the improvement of the indoor space on the supply side is relatively limited. At present, various regions have strict control over the problems of energy consumption and environmental pollution in the production of laminated glass. In particular, the pressure on environmental protection in North China is too great, and the production line is difficult to repair. In the future, the supply side of laminated glass will not be under much pressure. Compared with the demand side, the progress of stocking in the middle and lower reaches has accelerated, and the delivery pressure of the real estate industry will further increase in 2021. In addition, the "three red lines" of my country's new real estate policy drive the real estate industry to speed up the completion of construction and market sales. The requirements of the real estate industry will still greatly promote laminated glass within the year. It is estimated that the growth rate of the original film requirements is higher than the supply. cargo growth rate. Promoted by the cyclical rebound in demand in August, the pressure on inventory is likely to occur again, and the price of glass bottles is likely to fluctuate slightly.
Supply Analysis
In terms of production volume, according to the data released by the China Bureau of Statistics, in June 2021, the production volume of photovoltaic glass by Chinese glass bottle manufacturers was 87.07 million heavy boxes, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%; from January to June, the production volume of photovoltaic glass was 508.41 million heavy boxes, A year-on-year increase of 10.8%. Thanks to the higher manufacturing profitability, in 2021, China's production line repair and high production will lead to an increase in production volume. According to testing, as of July 29, taking coal-based gas as an example, the price of flat glass is 2,800 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 1,445 yuan/ton; taking gas as an example, the price of flat glass is 3,100 yuan/ton, and the profit is 1,387 yuan/ton. ; Taking petroleum coke as an example, the price of flat glass is 3106 yuan/ton, and the profit is 1788 yuan/ton.
2008-2011 is the peak period of production capacity. According to the cold repair cycle time of 8-10 years, it will still be in the peak period of cold repair in 2021. According to the data, as of July 28, after the zombie production line was removed, there were a total of 294 laminated glass production lines across the country, of which 262 were in production and 32 were shut down due to cold repairs. The production and sales ratio of float manufacturing enterprises was 89.12%, and the production volume was 89.88%. In July, the daily melting capacity of the glass industry remained at a stable level of 174,100 tons, which was higher than that of the same period. However, because most of the ignition of the production line is carried out before the peak period, the production capacity of the ignition after the event is very small. Before September, about 1000-2000 tons of production capacity will be ignited, accounting for about 1% of the total production capacity. It is understood that there are nearly 50 production lines with a kiln age exceeding 8 years. Although the further expansion of profitability is still enough to stimulate laminated glass manufacturers to accelerate production, delay cold repair production lines or reduce cold repair time, it is very likely to stop work anytime and anywhere in the middle and late stages, and the working pressure on the supply side of laminated glass is not obvious. .
Inventory Analysis
In terms of inventory, as of July 29, the total inventory output of laminated glass test companies across the country was 17.2512 million heavy boxes, a month-on-month decrease of 5.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 61.34% (under the same standard, the inventory of the test companies decreased by 5.90% month-on-month. , a year-on-year decrease of 66.34%), and the inventory days were 8.32 days. In June, affected by the rainy season and macroeconomic policies, the replenishment mentality in the middle and lower reaches weakened. However, after the trading companies and manufacturers digested and absorbed their own inventory in June, the inventory was at a low level, and the stocking was only to better promote the improvement of the delivery of the original film factory. So far in July, the inventory of flat glass companies has decreased. The traditional peak sales market is expected to rise and fall, the middle and upper reaches have certain requirements for replenishment of inventory, the middle and lower reaches have sufficient order information, and the sales market just needs a super strong support point, and the inventory of glass bottle factories is expected to be further reduced.
Demand Side Analysis
At the level of requirements, statistics show that the production volume of insulating glass windows will maintain a high growth rate in 2021, and the total production volume from January to May will increase by 17.7% year-on-year, indicating that the requirements for laminated glass will increase. Because more than 70% of the laminated glass is used behind the real estate industry, the requirements for laminated glass are reflected in the completion of the construction project. Judging from the development trend of data and information on the total construction area of houses in recent years, the increase in the total construction area from 2018 to October 2019 showed a continuous upward trend. In accordance with all normal progress, this new construction will be completed between 2020 and 2022. However, due to the impact of the pneumonia epidemic in 2020, the completion of the real estate industry did not increase year-on-year until the fourth quarter. From the data information in the first half of the year, the completion of the real estate industry has been accelerated. According to data from the China Bureau of Statistics, the total area of real estate completed in June increased by 66.5% year-on-year and 24.7% higher than in 2019. From January to June 2021, the living area across the country was 365 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 25.67%, and the growth rate increased by 9.29%.
It is worth mentioning that in 2017, the General Office of the State Council issued a notice deciding to open a national-level new area—Xiongan New Area planning to further promote the development trend of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration and cooperation. another key component of . The planning and planning area of Xiongan New Area is 100 square kilometers, the middle and late economic development zone is about 200 square kilometers, and the long-term control area is 2,000 square kilometers. At this stage, the production capacity of laminated glass in the Northeast region accounts for about 32% of all parts of the country. However, because the advantages of cost and cost mainly flow into East China and South China, there is a large vacancy in the construction technology glass requirements of Xiong'an New District planning projects, and there are continuous requirements for laminated glass in the medium and long term.
Laminated glass industry prospects and future prospects
Although the higher profit has increased the production volume, the laminated glass production line cannot be improved, only the production capacity can be replaced, so the improvement of the indoor space on the supply side is relatively limited. At present, various regions have strict control over the problems of energy consumption and environmental pollution in the production of laminated glass. In particular, the pressure on environmental protection in North China is too great, and the production line is difficult to repair. In the future, the supply side of laminated glass will not be under much pressure. Compared with the demand side, the progress of stocking in the middle and lower reaches has accelerated, and the delivery pressure of the real estate industry will further increase in 2021. In addition, the "three red lines" of my country's new real estate policy drive the real estate industry to speed up the completion of construction and market sales. The requirements of the real estate industry will still greatly promote laminated glass within the year. It is estimated that the growth rate of the original film requirements is higher than the supply. cargo growth rate. Promoted by the cyclical rebound in demand in August, the pressure on inventory is likely to occur again, and the price of glass bottles is likely to fluctuate slightly.
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